How Good Are You at Predicting the Past?

The better you are at predicting the future, the better decisions you will make.

One of the things I like about The Economist magazine is that, unlike most publications at this time of year, it doesn’t simply forecast what lies ahead, but evaluates the forecasts made last year.

Were their forecasts accurate or not?

Were they based on sound reasoning?

Were they grounded in valid assumptions?

The application to your integration business is that while It’s all well-and-good to look to the future and forecast opportunities and threats, what’s to say that’s anything more than just a guess?

How would you know unless you looked back and evaluated how well you forecasted in the past? And if your past forecasting led you to make decisions, set goals and develop plans, then those efforts were largely wasted if your ability to forecast was poor.

The better you are at predicting the future, the better decisions you will make. Which leads to better goal setting and more relevant plans.

The way to get better at predicting the future is to assess how well you predicted it in the past, the soundness of your reasoning and the validity of your assumptions.

Armed with those learnings, you can revise your model, and your protocol for forecasting. And then after the following year, you assess and revise once again.

 

That continuous loop of predicting, assessing, and revising, will improve your ability to forecast, make good decisions, and set meaningful goals. Michael Canic

 

Yes, it’s good to look forward and attempt to predict the future. But it’s equally important to look backward and determine how well you predicted the past.

Make it happen.
Michael Canic

 

This article first appeared on the Make Strategy Happen blog, and has been republished with their express permission.

Read the original story here – https://www.makingstrategyhappen.com/how-good-were-you-at-predicting-the-past/

 

 

If you would like to learn more watch the video, as our CEO, Brad Dempsey, interviews Michael Canic about his new book, Ruthless Consistency.

Clear Talk Ep 01 with Michael Canic

 

 

 

Handpicked Related Content:  In the spirit of learning from the past, Brad Malone shares best practices for integrators creating a lessons learned process. This article is consistently one of the most read pieces of content on our blog.

What Should A Lessons Learned Process Focus On?

 

 

Handpicked Related Content: Read more by Michael Canic

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